ASTS cratered from $133 to $56 in weeks. Anpanman explains the brutal deleveraging event behind the crash - and why fundamentals still win.
In this episode, Anpanman unpacks the recent market-wide deleveraging event that hammered ASTS stock and other high-beta names like Rocket Lab and memory stocks, explaining the difference between margin-driven selloffs and true fundamentals. He dives into swirling rumors around SpaceX potentially acquiring wireless spectrum or a carrier like Verizon or T-Mobile, and why that narrative may be a pressure tactic against the AT&T-Verizon-T-Mobile joint venture with AST SpaceMobile. Kook also covers upcoming catalysts for the satellite direct-to-cell company, including next week's Falcon 9 launch, Bluebird satellites 14-16 shipping, the Grain Management 800MHz spectrum deal awaiting FCC approval, the Rakuten J.Leo joint venture, and AST's August 10th earnings report. Throughout, he stresses the importance of avoiding margin leverage and staying grounded in fundamentals during volatile market conditions.
00:00 Introduction - market deleveraging event
01:01 Retail selling at fastest pace since Covid
05:00 Korea's economic culture and speculative trading
07:57 Margin, leverage and deleveraging explained
09:09 The AI arms race and CapEx sustainability debate
12:00 The human toll of leveraged losses
14:11 Warning signs: Virgin Galactic and speculative space stocks
16:00 Hindsight at ASTS's $133 high
18:42 How hedge funds 'gross up' leverage
23:14 Situational hedge fund blowup and memory stocks
26:41 Signs of capitulation and forced selling
29:49 Are we close to a bottom?
34:45 AST fundamentals: loved it at $130, love it at $56?
41:24 Semafor's SpaceX spectrum and carrier rumor
47:39 Why SpaceX won't buy Verizon or T-Mobile
58:01 AST SpaceMobile catalyst tracker and next week's launch
1:01:24 AT&T/Verizon/T-Mobile JV and Grain Management spectrum update
1:07:57 Q&A: short squeeze potential
1:09:57 Q&A: SpaceX earnings and lockup expiry impact
1:12:19 Q&A: leverage, psychology and market manipulation
🎙️ Catch all episodes on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5u6rTxenTvGw4STNbjswAk
👋 Connect with the host on X: https://x.com/spacanpanman
👕 Get the Gear: https://spacemob.printify.me/
This is not financial advice. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.
📩 AST SpaceMobile Podcast Newsletter: https://ast-spacemobile-podcast.beehiiv.com/
