AI stocks sold off hard this week while TSMC and ASML posted records. CoreWeave's 2032 bonds hit a record 14.5% yield on Tuesday, and on Friday CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN each fell more than 11%. Daniel Newman and Shay Boloor went live after the close on episode 60 to sort out what drove the selloff and what they bought, then took your questions.
Shay says the cost of capital is the reason the market pulled back so hard, with Anthropic's slower growth on top. He reads the hot CPI and PPI prints as an energy shock, with gasoline about half of the increase in final demand goods, and says the Fed cannot add oil supply by moving rates. Daniel calls CoreWeave the canary in the coal mine, says Nebius, IREN and CoreWeave will become hyperscalers, and argues that the AI labs and the neoclouds are all moving to a hyperscaler business model. He expects Anthropic to end the year at $100 billion to $115 billion of ARR and says 20 times ARR is a reasonable multiple. Shay is adding to Nebius and added DigitalOcean. Daniel sold a CoreWeave put spread to March and is buying Micron.
On TSMC and ASML, Daniel calls the two companies the adults in the room and says TSMC, one of the most conservative companies on the planet, is still spending big. Shay says ASML expects demand to exceed supply through at least 2028, with customers already talking about orders for 2029 and 2030, and that its memory system sales grew far faster than logic. His worry is the hyperscalers raising capital, Meta in particular, before their earnings in a couple of weeks.
The Q&A covers Nebius against CoreWeave, why Rocket Lab is Shay's top add, Daniel's buys in Rocket Lab, ASTS, Micron and Intel, HBM against DRAM and NAND, Qualcomm's Meta deal at about 14 times earnings, Shay's QQQ hedge rule, a Tesla and SpaceX merger, Daniel's healthcare names, Oracle's bonds, ASTS launch access, and Oklo.
Watch the full episode with chapters on YouTube: https://youtube.com/live/glYVLCLOI6Q?feature=share
The show is live every Friday. Bring your tickers and questions to the chat and the guys will take them on air.
