Ep 65: End of the Beginning with China? Excess Capacity, Updating the Arsenal, and USMCA Parallaxes

In this week’s episode, our trade insiders start with the EU’s import quotas on automobiles from China and a “non-paper” by France and Germany that would expand the EU’s ability to take trade actions. The panel weighs whether Europe is acting in its own interest rather than as a concession to the United States, and whether this is the end of the road for China or, as Churchill once put it, “the end of the beginning.” A spirited debate follows over the long-awaited excess capacity reports and whether 301 tariffs on the other 15 economies could create cover for partners or drive Asian countries back toward China. The insiders then turn to updating the U.S. trade arsenal through a bipartisan commission by Congress and whether the EU’s anti-coercion instrument will ever be operationalized. Finally,we discuss reports that Secretary Lutnick is complicating negotiations with Mexico over Section 232 tariffs on steel and autos, after the U.S. opened that door in the discussions with Canada that ultimately broke down; and what part does the Senate race in Ohio and the political ambitions of the Vice President come into play when talking steel and auto tariffs?

Featured Speakers:

Wendy Cutler, Senior Vice President, Asia Society Policy Institute; former Acting Deputy U.S. Trade Representative

Kate Kalutkiewicz, Senior Managing Director, McLarty Associates; former Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for International Trade, National Economic Council, in the first Trump Administration

Stephen Vaughn, Partner, International Trade, King & Spalding LLP; former General Counsel, Office of the United States Trade Representative under first Trump Administration

Moderator: Joe Damond, Non-resident Senior Associate at Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in their Southeast Asia program; former Deputy Assistant USTR for Asia