Ukraine’s deep-strike campaign continues at a punishing pace. The Ilsky and Syzran refineries were reportedly struck, additional Russian shadow-fleet vessels were targeted, and one Ukrainian drone was filmed evading three Russian air-defense missiles.
Yet the information environment has shifted toward pessimism—even as Russia’s territorial advances remain limited and its losses continue. Professor Gerdes examines the widening gap between what is happening militarily and how the war now feels psychologically. He also covers Russia’s deadly ballistic-missile attacks, Ukraine’s air-defense shortage, the battle for Kostiantynivka and Slovyansk, and the strategy of destroying Russian missiles before they can launch.
CHAPTERS
00:00 Ukraine’s campaign feels different
00:16 Approximately 310 Ukrainian drones launched
00:50 Ilsky oil refinery struck
01:22 Two Russian refineries hit overnight
01:45 Russia struggles to defend Yaroslavl
03:40 Twelve more shadow-fleet vessels hit
03:58 Why has the information space turned pessimistic?
05:07 Three more Russian vessels struck
05:18 Ukrainian drone evades three Russian missiles
06:16 Ukraine’s Wildberries campaign
06:37 Russia’s deadly overnight attack
07:42 Russian strikes target trains and civilians
08:00 Ukraine’s critical Patriot missile shortage
08:15 Suspected Russian intelligence operation in Germany
08:37 Russian battlefield losses
09:46 Kostiantynivka and Slovyansk under pressure
10:09 Ukraine destroys a Shahed before launch
10:37 Ukrainian Mi-24 flies at treetop level
11:03 Supporter shout-out
11:17 Why changing an analysis matters
11:46 Kill the archer—and the arrows stop
12:02 Are you optimistic or pessimistic?
12:20 Upcoming Ukrainian fundraisers
12:43 Darth Putin’s Russian “logic”
12:59 Programming update
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