Matt Crosby joins me to break down what the data is saying about Bitcoin today and whether the bear-market bottom is already behind us.
We discuss Bitcoin’s price and time capitulation, MVRV and on-chain valuation, long-term versus short-term holders, diminishing volatility, global M2 and DXY, the four-year cycle, and the signals Matt believes point toward a new phase of the Bitcoin market.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:38 Matt Crosby’s background and Look Into Bitcoin
02:30 How predictive is on-chain data?
08:28 Why Matt uses percentile-based Bitcoin valuation
14:24 Is the Bitcoin bottom in?
19:16 Why Bitcoin bear markets happen
24:25 Price capitulation vs. time capitulation
31:39 Bitcoin’s upside as volatility declines
36:20 Rethinking long-term vs. short-term holders
43:00 Is Bitcoin’s four-year cycle real?
49:00 Presidential cycles, seasonality and market myths
52:00 Long-term holder conviction and the next bull market
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