Imagine you’re steering a massive cargo ship toward a horizon that is constantly shifting. In a world of 'postnormal' change and 'wicked' problems, how do you decide which way to turn when every trend seems to point in a different direction? This episode explores a powerful new tool designed to help decision-makers navigate exactly this kind of complexity by looking at the 'inertia' of the world around us.
The researchers introduce an integrated three-layered framework that stacks trends based on how long they’ve been unfolding. By analyzing century-long shifts, 50-year economic cycles known as Kondratieff waves, and shorter-term megatrends in conjunction, the authors argue we can reduce uncertainty and gain a much sharper view of the future. It’s a move away from simple forecasting toward a 'meta-level' understanding of how different forces of change interact and reinforce one another.
We also dive into a practical case study involving the Port of Rotterdam, where this framework reveals a startling possibility: the era of hyper-globalization may be ending, shifting instead toward a focus on sustainability and hyper-connectivity. This insight doesn't just change a forecast; it fundamentally reshapes how one of the world's largest ports plans its land use and infrastructure for the next forty years.
• The Meta-Framework: Organizes trends into three layers of inertia (>100 years, +/- 50 years, and 10–30 years) to identify deep structural changes.
• K-Waves as a Linking Pin: Uses the regularity of 50-year economic cycles to indicate the timing and relevance of emerging technologies like 3D printing and autonomous driving.
• Systemic Interaction: Demonstrates how century-long trends, such as shifts in geopolitical world order, actually trigger the direction of the next major economic wave.
• Trend-Based Narratives: Moves beyond abstract data to create detailed stories that help organizations translate complex trend analysis into concrete strategy.
Tune in to learn how to see through the noise of the present by reading the deep currents of history.
Ref:
Cornelis van Dorsser, Poonam Taneja. An integrated three-layered foresight framework. Foresight, 22, 2020, 250-272. ISSN 1463-6689. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-05-2019-0039
