The Weight of the Evidence | Tech Mania Tips with Katie Stockton

In this episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, Dave is joined by Katie Stockton, Founder of Fairlead Strategies. Recorded in mid-August 2026.

Katie shares how she transitioned from a subjective, narrative-driven technical analyst into a highly disciplined, rules-based portfolio manager. We dig into why technical analysis isn't about predicting the future, but rather putting the "weight of the evidence" in your favor to ensure you never stay on the wrong side of a trend. The conversation explores the mechanics behind her Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (TACK)—which equal-weights sectors to provide necessary ballast against massive mega-cap tech concentration—and how she uses multiple timeframes to reconcile lagging moving averages with contrarian DeMark exhaustion indicators. We also discuss the strategy behind her newly launched Tactical Bitcoin ETF (BNAV), applying traditional trend-following rules to the extreme volatility and consolidation phases of crypto.

If You've enjoyed today's interview with Katie Stockton, please check out one of these Links!

Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF: https://www.fairleadfunds.com/
Amplify Fairlead Tactical Bitcoin ETF: https://amplifyetfs.com/bnav/

📈 Topics Covered
• Shifting from prediction to probabilities: Why technical analysis is fundamentally about recognizing when the evidence has changed to keep trends on your side
• The hierarchy of technical indicators: Why price and trend must always supersede momentum and breadth in a rules-based system
• Managing the "tech-heavy" benchmark problem: Using an equal-weight tactical sector approach (via the TACK ETF) to provide portfolio ballast and capture rotations into Energy or Materials
• Reconciling conflicting signals: How to balance lagging moving averages with contrarian DeMark exhaustion indicators across multiple timeframes
• Overcoming the fear of "Overbought": Why an overbought RSI reading in a primary uptrend is often the beginning of a massive run rather than a sell signal
• The tactical approach to Bitcoin: Applying trend-following technicals to a 24/7 global commodity characterized by prolonged consolidations and explosive volatility
• Removing emotional bias: Why adopting a systematic, rules-based process is the ultimate defense against confirmation bias and behavioral "bonehead" mistakes

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The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.