Deep value research on Microsoft (MSFT) as of 2026-11-07: $190B AI capex plan. A leaked memo shows Microsoft offering buyouts to about 60,000 employees, roughly 27% of its workforce, while planning up to $190B in AI data center spending. We use a Graham-Buffett lens to show what swapping payroll for depreciating hardware means for owner earnings, maintenance capex and the moat.


Chapters

(0:00) The Capital Allocation Pivot

(0:39) Swapping OPEX for CAPEX

(1:47) Anatomy of the Buyout Memo

(2:53) Velocity of Execution

(3:16) What Stays vs. What Goes

(6:03) The $190B Infrastructure Runway

(7:04) Swapping OPEX for CAPEX

(9:09) Velocity of Execution

(10:09) The Bear Case Risks

(12:44) The $190B Infrastructure Runway

(14:50) AI-Era Playbook for Value Investors

(18:05) Tools for Value Investors

(18:43) Get the free apps


Full open-source research report: https://research.deepvalues.ai/company/msft/2026-10-04-en/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=msft


DeepValues toolkit

• DeepValues for iOS, intrinsic value and margin of safety for any stock: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/deepvalues/id6775568608

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• Open-source research on 300+ companies: https://research.deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=msft

• Deep Value Intelligence, the multi-agent AI analyst: https://deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=msft

• Developer API for your AI agents: https://app.deepvalues.ai/developers?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=msft


Deep Value Intelligence audits the numbers behind the headlines with a Graham-Dodd / Buffett lens: valuation discipline, cash generation, balance-sheet safety and return on capital. Don't guess. Calculate.


• This episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/U7Y0cSrOtLk

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