S3 Partners founder Bob Sloan flagged Strategy's (MSTR) funding problem months ago. With Bitcoin near $60K and Saylor's break-even around $70K, Bob and Charlie Gasparino break down the negative carry, the asset-liability mismatch, and the "holes in the boat": if his 4% of all Bitcoin starts hitting the tape, the ~$20K technical floor of the last crypto winter comes back into play.
On the S3 radar: Pepsi (PEP), the bullish pick of the week into earnings, short interest up 46% against a rising price; Hong Kong, a tinderbox with shorts up 49% as China nears a deflation exit; memory/DRAM, where US shorts press SanDisk (SNDK) and Micron (MU) at extreme Z-scores while Korean longs, up 200%, crush shorts out of the market; and Circle (CRCL), down 19% on passive selling even with active longs at 2.5x shorts — a crack in the stablecoin duopoly.
Away from the data desk, Charlie reports on the Sun Valley media gathering — knitting class included — where Ken Griffin rejects the class-warfare label and sources say the Comcast–Charter deal everyone expects isn't happening. Plus a live text brawl between AMC CEO Adam Aron and analyst Rich Greenfield over dilution math, and Jay Clayton's nod for Director of National Intelligence.
Risk & Return with Charlie Gasparino and Bob Sloan. Data drives news. News drives markets.
For more information about the positioning data featured in the episode visit www.S3Partners.com
00:00 Intro
02:36 Breaking news from Sun Valley: the billionaires' knitting class
07:15 Ken Griffin, class warfare, and the mogul lineup
15:36 Strategy (MSTR): Saylor below break-even
19:38 "Holes in the boat" — why $20K is Bitcoin's technical floor
23:00 Why Brian Roberts looks glum: Comcast–Charter math doesn't work
26:27 S3 pick of the week: Pepsi (PEP) bullish into earnings
27:14 Hong Kong tinderbox: shorts +49% as China nears a deflation exit
29:13 China Vanke and the state backstop
31:26 Memory/DRAM: shorts press SanDisk & Micron at extreme Z-scores
32:32 South Korea's "dragon's mouth": Active long positioning
35:01 Circle (CRCL): a cracking stablecoin duopoly
37:19 AMC text brawl: Adam Aron vs. Rich Greenfield on dilution
44:33 Wrap-up
