In this week's Hurdle Rate, the crew unpacks a market that has come roaring back to life, from Strategy returning as a Bitcoin buyer at 0% net leverage to Strive growing its stack 14.4% in two weeks to 23,156 Bitcoin. Jeff brings back lessons from Bitcoin Asia, where investors are building structured finance on top of Bitcoin and digital credit faster than the US, and we dig into why STRC hasn't snapped back to par, how amplification and liquidity have to be earned rather than dialed in, and why Strategy's balance sheet may be the most misunderstood credit story in the market. We then take on MSCI's proposed exclusion of digital asset treasury companies and why it would effectively make index providers investment advisers, before closing on macro: fiscal dominance, why long-end yields go higher whether the Fed hikes or cuts, and why this is a backdrop Bitcoin has never seen.
Here's the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, and Tim Kotzman.
Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
02:29 - Lessons from Bitcoin Asia
15:37 - Strive Grows to 23,156 Bitcoin
17:44 - Strategy Returns as a Buyer
19:22 - Why STRC Hasn't Hit Par
23:28 - Strategy's Zero Net Leverage
33:41 - The MSCI Fight
47:07 - Macro: Jackson Hole and Yields
53:29 - A Backdrop Bitcoin Has Never Seen
59:44 - The Natural Rate on Long Bonds
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Any securities referred to herein, including those of True North’s parent Strive, are not collateralized by underlying bitcoin holdings and may be subordinated to senior claims. There are no guarantee of returns liquidity or future performance. The securities referred to herein are neither bank deposits, nor FDIC insured, nor regulated in the same way, and do not have the same regulatory and other protections as bank accounts, money market funds, treasuries, or similar investments and as a result may not be comparable investments. Current trading prices and effective yields may vary, current rates are not indicative of future rates, and in some cases rates are subject to frequent adjustments and may be significantly lower than discussed herein. Cash dividends are not guaranteed. In some cases, dividends have not been paid and may not be paid in the future. Ownership of securities referred to in herein does not confer ownership in the underlying assets, including bitcoin.
