Florence Gaub on reading the future: War, weak signals, & wild scenarios

Leaders are drowning in crises, yet Florence Gaub argues their real competitive edge lies in how they imagine the future. In this episode of Leaders Unplugged with David Bach, the NATO Defense College research director, futurist and military strategist explains why “strategic foresight is the gym for the mind,” how weak signals from distant places, online communities and emerging technologies can reveal tomorrow’s shocks, and why reducing surprise buys organizations their most precious asset: time. 

Gaub dissects the Strait of Hormuz, Russia’s war on Ukraine, and China’s climate strategy to show how wishful thinking at the highest levels can cripple even the most sophisticated governments – and what executives must do differently.

Gaub insists that “all companies above a certain size today will be affected by geopolitics” and that every leadership team should build an annual discipline of horizon scanning and scenario work. She argues that whoever “finds the right answers to climate change first” will define the next global power hierarchy, that science fiction is a good indicator for future conflicts, and shares answers to a deceptively simple question: “What future would you be willing to fight for?”

Our guest

Florence Gaub is a Franco-German political scientist, military strategist, and futurist. She is Director of the Research Division at the NATO Defense College in Rome. Before joining NATO in her current role in 2023 (she also worked at NATO from 2009-2013), she was Deputy Director of the European Union Institute for Security Studies in Paris and served as a foresight adviser within the EU system. Her books include The Future: A User’s Guide, and Szenario, a current nominee for for the German non-fiction award. She is also the co-host of the Munich Security Conference podcast The Art of Diplomacy. 

Resources mentioned in this episode

1. Fears of a Setting Sun: The Disillusionment of America’s Founders
   https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691210230/fears-of-a-setting-sun
2. New Scientisthttps://www.newscientist.com/
3. NATO Archives:
   https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/declassified.htm
   NATO-Russia Founding Act, 1997: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_25468.htm
4. 2018 US National Defense Strategy
   https://media.defense.gov/2020/May/18/2002302061/-1/-1/1/2018-NATIONAL-DEFENSE-STRATEGY-SUMMARY.PDF
5. 2022 US National Security Strategy
   https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf
6. The Weaponisation of Everything: A Field Guide to the New Way of War — Mark Galeotti
   https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300270419/the-weaponisation-of-everything/
7. Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About the World — Hans Rosling, Ola Rosling and Anna Rosling Rönnlund
   https://www.gapminder.org/factfulness-book/
8. NATO 2099
   https://www.ndc.nato.int/nato-2099-the-science-fiction-anthology/
   https://www.ndc.nato.int/nato-2099-a-graphic-novel/
9. Florence Gaub and Roderick Parkes: “Is Europe Too Soft to Fight?”
   https://warontherocks.com/is-europe-too-soft-to-fight/

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