Situated near Russia’s Kola Peninsula—home to the Northern Fleet and a core component of Russia’s sea-based nuclear deterrent, including ballistic-missile submarines—the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard lies within the perimeter of Moscow’s Arctic bastion defence and has become an increasingly important potential flashpoint in the context of heightened NATO–Russia tensions. In this episode, Prof. Katarzyna Zysk discusses her article “Svalbard’s Deterrence Gap” and examines recent Russian hybrid activities in Svalbard, Russia’s evolving military posture in the Arctic and Baltic regions since the invasion of Ukraine, and how NATO can bridge Svalbard’s emerging deterrence gap. The discussion also includes the implications of growing Russia–China cooperation for Svalbard and the Arctic, and considers how the eventual end of the war in Ukraine could reshape security dynamics across Northern Europe. Also discussed is the recent NATO exercise Cold Response that Prof. Zysk participated in.
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