Dorothy Andrews and Nate Luketin on Climate Attribution Science

When is a changing climate actually changing insurance risk—and how do actuaries know?

Recorded live at the CAS Spring Meeting in New York City, Alicia Burke and guest co-host Malika Bender sit down with Dorothy Andrews (NAIC) and Nate Luketin to explore one of the most challenging questions facing the profession: how should actuaries incorporate climate attribution science into pricing, catastrophe modeling, and enterprise risk management?

The guests explain how attribution science helps distinguish natural variability from measurable shifts in risk, why historical data may no longer be enough for some perils, and what actuaries should ask before relying on emerging climate research.

They discuss:

• What climate attribution science actually measures—and what it doesn't
• How attribution studies can strengthen actuarial judgment and model governance
• Why transparency and uncertainty matter as much as predictive accuracy
• The role of peer-reviewed research, confidence intervals, and model validation
• How actuaries should evaluate vendor models and climate assumptions
• Why human judgment remains essential in an era of increasingly sophisticated AI

Throughout the conversation, Dorothy and Nate emphasize that the goal isn't to replace actuarial expertise with new models, but to challenge assumptions, improve decision-making, and communicate uncertainty more effectively. For actuaries working in pricing, catastrophe modeling, reserving, or ERM, this episode offers a practical framework for evaluating one of the profession's fastest-evolving areas.