Adam Lockyer: Demonstrating Maritime Deterrence at a New Historical Juncture

Professor Adam Lockyer joins Pacific Polarity to discuss his new book "Conventional Maritime Deterrence", arguing that deterrence at sea operates fundamentally differently from deterrence on land. He explains how concepts such as sea control, sea denial and "maritime sparring" shape competition in the Indo-Pacific, why Australia needs both offensive and defensive options—including AUKUS—and why emerging technologies such as drones may be reshaping maritime warfare. Drawing on Cold War history, Lockyer suggests Australia's evolving strategy may increasingly resemble Soviet rather than traditional American maritime doctrine, while arguing that Australia's greatest strategic weakness lies not in its plans but in its failure to convincingly demonstrate the capabilities and resilience it claims to possess. The discussion also explores the lessons of the Iran and Ukraine wars, industrial preparedness, societal resilience, and how policymakers can avoid learning the wrong lessons from history.

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