Anthropic went from $9bn of annualised revenue in December to $65bn by the end of July, and it's expected to list in October at close to $2 trillion - the highest price any company has ever carried into a stock market debut.
If you work backwards from that valuation, it has to be earning about $1.2 trillion a year within a decade. The entire world spends $1.5 trillion on software.
So the Anthropic IPO isn't a bet on software at all. It's a bet on wages.
In this episode of In The Loop, I'm exploring the six things that all have to be true for a $2 trillion Anthropic valuation to make sense - using their IPO as a way of understanding the strategies of the biggest AI companies in the world.
⏭️ Episode highlights
(01:00) – Why nobody in AI talks about software any more
(02:00) – $9bn to $65bn in seven months, and the caveat
(03:10) – Anthropic's own written date for powerful AI
(04:20) – One in five firms, 78% of the workforce
(05:20) – The 60 pence in every pound that goes back out
(06:20) – Memory costs more than the processor
(07:30) – Three of the four hyperscalers are burning cash
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