In this bonus episode of The Morning Filter podcast, host Dave Sekera sits down with Morningstar Chief Economist Preston Caldwell to discuss their market and economic outlooks heading into the end of 2026. Tune in to find out why stock selection is becoming increasingly important, what valuations are signaling to investors, and how to position your portfolios as market risks continue to build. 

They unpack expectations for economic growth, inflation, and interest rates and discuss how the artificial intelligence boom is affecting the economy. They close by talking about mega-cap stocks, what’s behind the rise in bond yields, and why conditions in private credit continue to worsen. 

Episode Highlights  

  • A third-quarter performance recap and where US stocks stand today. 
  • The key risks to watch in Q4. 
  • Which sectors, styles, and market caps offer opportunities, and where valuations look stretched. 
  • Morningstar’s latest list of analyst stock picks. 
  • Morningstar’s US economic outlook heading into 2027. 
  • What rising rates and growing strains in private credit mean for fixed-income investors. 

Read about topics from this episode.  

Q4 2026 Stock Market Outlook: Individual Stock Selection Looks Increasingly Important 

 

 

Have an idea for a bonus episode of The Morning Filter? Send it to themorningfilter@morningstar.com. 

 

Follow Dave Sekera on X (@MstarMarkets) and on LinkedIn (Dave Sekera) to subscribe to his weekly newsletter and keep up to date with his latest research. Follow Morningstar on Facebook (MorningstarInc), X (@MorningstarInc), Instagram (MorningstarInc) and LinkedIn (Morningstar). 

 

If you would like more information about any of the stocks Dave talked about today, you can visit Morningstar.com for more details. Subscribe to The Morning Filter to get notified when we post next. 

 

This episode is sponsored by Vanguard: https://advisors.vanguard.com/engagement/fixed-income 


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