Michael Oliver, founder of Momentum Structural Analysis and veteran market technician, joins me to break down what he sees as a major shift away from paper assets and toward commodities and monetary metals.
👉 Michael Oliver's Website: https://www.olivermsa.com
Recording Date 9-10-2026. In this episode, Michael explains why weakening Treasury bonds, rising yields, a vulnerable U.S. dollar, and continued monetary expansion could become the forces driving the next major market rotation. We examine his bearish dollar thesis, the yen's potential turn, and a money supply that has increased nearly 50% since COVID. Michael argues that stocks have absorbed enormous liquidity since the post-2008 QE era, but with equities now looking like a bubble by his metrics and government bonds losing their traditional safe-haven appeal, capital may increasingly seek alternatives.
I also dig into Michael's bullish commodity, gold, and silver outlook. He highlights the Bloomberg Commodity Index near 146 versus its 2008 peak around 235 and identifies a breakout from a roughly 16-year declining channel. Michael believes commodity-related stocks, agriculture, oil, base-metal miners, and ETFs such as MOO could benefit. Gold's previous major bull markets delivered roughly eightfold advances, while the current move from about $1,050 has only quadrupled, supporting his argument for potentially $8,000–$9,000 gold. Silver is even more explosive in his framework, with Michael discussing a theoretical $500 long-term target while emphasizing that silver and precious-metals miners could ultimately outperform gold.
Key Insights In This Episode
✅ Michael expects rising yields, weaker bonds, and a falling dollar to drive the next major monetary-metals move.
✅ Money supply has increased nearly 50% since COVID, reinforcing his long-term inflation and hard-asset thesis.
✅ The Bloomberg Commodity Index has broken a roughly 16-year declining channel and could enter a major second upwave.
✅ Gold could reach $8,000–$9,000 if this bull market merely matches the eightfold magnitude of its prior major advances.
✅ Silver's historical range produces a theoretical $500 target, while its long-term momentum structure remains bullish.
✅ Michael expects silver and precious-metals miners to outperform gold as capital rotates away from stocks and government bonds.
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Chapters
00:00 Macro Outlook and Treasury Bond Warning
03:08 Yen Turn and Dollar Weakness
05:56 The Dollar Could Become an Event
07:27 Money Supply and Real Inflation
09:02 Nearly 50% Money Supply Expansion
14:56 Historic Commodity Rotation
17:42 Oil Joins the Commodity Breakout
19:41 Gold Bull Market Outlook
23:01 Silver's Massive Upside Potential
24:38 Gold at $4,500 and Silver Breakout
26:08 Silver Gold and Miners Turn Higher
27:43 Premium Commodity Outlook
DISCLAIMER: Steve Barton and In It To Win It are not registered investment advisers or broker-dealers. This is general, impersonal education and opinion - not individualized financial advice. Stocks, price levels, position sizes, and personal trades are not instructions to act. Investing involves risk, including total loss. I may own and trade securities discussed. Any of these links may be affiliate links, meaning at no extra cost to you In It To Win It may get compensation. Any sponsored travel will be disclosed. Information may change without notice. Do your own due diligence and consult a licensed professional. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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