China’s manufacturing output just grew at the fastest pace in six months, but retail sales barely moved last month – and the gap between the two growth rates just hit its widest point in over three years.
The upshot: Exports are still picking up the slack.
But an increasing chunk of China’s export growth is simply down to price increases, not rising volumes.
So even that stalwart economic prop is starting to wobble.
On this quick-reaction episode of the Trivium China Podcast, Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Peissel (Trivium’s Lead Macroeconomist) to unpack:
Why the gap between factory output and consumer spending just hit a three-year high, and why Beijing’s own policy playbook keeps worsening the imbalance
The hidden story in China’s “booming” exports: value is up 25%, but volumes for things like semiconductors and appliances are actually falling
The one semi-bright spot in the monthly macro-econ data: infrastructure investment is declining at a slower pace (hurrah!)
Why Beijing’s new interest-rate subsidy for consumers is aimed at the wrong problem entirely
Putting it all together: China’s economy will continue to decelerate into year-end.
Podden och tillhörande omslagsbild på den här sidan tillhör
Trivium China. Innehållet i podden är skapat av Trivium China och inte av,
eller tillsammans med, Poddtoppen.
