Moritz Seibert and Moritz Heiden of Takahe Capital dive deep into the mechanics of high-octane trend-following strategies and unpack why they target 25-30% annualized volatility, bucking the institutional trend of lower volatility to capture massive outlier trades like the recent cocoa and gold runs. They explore the heated debate between dynamic position sizing and classic approaches, revealing why letting winners run is crucial for massive returns. The conversation also touches on the emerging world of perpetual futures on decentralized platforms and why keeping trading models simple often beats complex fundamental analysis.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:14 Do You Need Big Trends
03:21 Smooth vs Choppy Trends
05:00 Oil Curve Positioning
07:43 Model Design Not Discretion
09:24 Why Trend Funds Differ
16:02 Classic Trend Playbooks
19:04 Sizing Beats Entry
25:01 Perpetual Futures Reality
32:41 High Octane Philosophy
35:22 Letting Winners Get Huge
39:04 Why Trends End Late
41:55 Price Only vs Fundamentals
46:28 What’s Trending Now
49:57 Spreads Underperforming
52:37 When Signals Die
57:49 Simple Robust Parameters
01:00:59 Design Without Optimization
01:05:43 Diversification and Investors
01:09:32 Uniqueness and Market Mix
01:14:21 Who Buys High Vol
01:15:54 Conclusion
