In this video, Nik covers the market reaction to Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, starting with the two-year yield pushing back toward its highs near 4.35% and what that says about the market pricing in rate hikes. He explains why the yield curve flattening from 50 to 37 basis points on the week is the move he finds most important, how a flattening curve prices growth out of the economy, and why Michael Howell's read frames it as a premium for safe assets. Nik also revisits the recession call TBL got wrong in 2022, and covers bitcoin's three failed attempts at $81,000 this week.
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