Iran’s escalating conflict is tightening global oil supplies, especially through the Strait of Hormuz, sparking a refined products shortage in Asia and triggering record-high refining margins—far outpacing crude oil gains. Big oil giants like Shell, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, and Chevron are reaping massive profits, with Shell’s earnings more than doubling and TotalEnergies’ refining margins nearly tripling year-over-year. Even if Middle East tensions ease, low global inventories mean high margins will persist for quarters to come. The IEA warns against complacency as refined fuel markets remain dangerously tight.
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