Tensions between the US and Iran have eased as both sides extend a pause in hostilities, with Oman now stepping in as the key mediator to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump hints at “very deep talks” with Tehran, suggesting Iran is responding to recent US military pressure. The de-escalation has already cooled oil prices—Brent crude dropped below $86 after hitting over $100—potentially helping Trump’s reelection chances amid looming midterms. Yet, danger lingers: shipping remains sparse in Hormuz, and the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb face similar disruptions after Houthi threats. Supertankers are now rerouting to Egypt for Saudi crude as Red Sea exports stall, while both Saudi Arabia and Iraq report drone attacks on oil infrastructure, underscoring that peace talks are fragile and the region remains volatile.
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