Traders are betting heavily—82%—that the Fed will raise rates again, fueled by oil surging past $100 a barrel for the first time since May. Market odds now show a 38% chance of a quarter-point hike at next week’s meeting, up from under 12% just a week ago. Signs of economic overheating, including falling jobless claims and rising 2-year Treasury yields, are pushing the Fed toward tighter policy. Yet most economists still expect no hikes in 2026, with modest cuts possibly starting in 2027. This mirrors June’s Fed debate, where half of policymakers believed at least one more hike was needed amid persistent inflation and Middle East energy disruptions.
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