The Fed held rates steady, sparking a stock rally—until Treasury yields surged, hinting investors doubted the Fed’s inflation-fighting resolve. With a 50% chance of a September rate hike, Chair Warsh reaffirmed the goal of hitting 2% inflation. For big retailers like Walmart, Costco, and Target, this pause could be a blessing: higher rates curb spending, which these stores rely on. Target’s most vulnerable—selling non-essentials and operating only in the U.S.—followed by Walmart, whose price-sensitive shoppers feel economic pressure. Costco’s membership model shields it best. Ultimately, these retailers need inflation and rates to fall together while the economy stays steady.
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