In episode 77, Jonathan Stern talks with Dr. Bijan Salehizadeh -- physician and managing director of NaviMed Capital, former pharma venture investor, founding investor in Auris Health. Bijan holds no position in HIMS. The conversation opens on the FDA: why Heidi Overton is "moldable clay," her 30-40% confirmation odds, and why pharma prefers interim commissioner Kyle Diamantis. They then move to Eli Lilly's multi-front war on compounded GLP-1s, the ReviveRx suit, the effort to pull semaglutide and tirzepatide off the 503B bulks list, and Bijan's theory of a "grand bargain" trading compounding restrictions for Medicare pricing cooperation. He walks through the retatrutide biologic fight ahead of the September 24th appellate argument in Chicago, and why Hims' 76% gross margins are gone for good as branded dispensing grows. They close on peptides: Bijan has heard Category 1 rulemaking *could* come as soon as November, and he thinks the market could be 10x bigger than current estimates.
00:00 - Sponsor: Superpower
01:16 - No one knows anything about Heidi Overton (FDA nominee)
06:29 - Eli Lilly's war on 503A pharmacies
08:47 - The Lilly "grand bargain"
13:49 - When compounding becomes a "new drug"
17:34 - Branded drugs crush margins
21:51 - Hims management scorecard
26:29 - Retatrutide reclassification fight
35:10 - Suing the reta gray market vendors
37:06 - Why the Wegovy pill is beating Foundayo
40:56 - Europe is a second-tier market
42:15 - Can LillyDirect beat telehealth?
46:14 - Peptides Wild West
50:51 - Category 1 by November?
52:40 - Peptides market 10x bigger than estimates
55:56 - Will Ro go public?
58:34 - Bullish $HIMS long term
Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing discussed should be considered financial, investment, or legal advice. Always consult with a qualified professional before making financial decisions.
