Jared Dillian, author of The Daily Dirtmap and the new book “The Awesome Portfolio”, returns to argue that the bond bear market is a sentiment story that has gone too far. Jared calls the market's obsession with deficits and inflation a "mind virus," notes that the $2 trillion deficit is only 6% of GDP versus 12% in 2010, and points out that everyone measures bond supply while nobody measures demand. He has moved a large share of his own money into long bonds as a three-to-five-year hold, calling 5.2–5.3% on 30s and 4.7% on 10s an incredible deal, especially with payrolls deteriorating, JOLTS and PMIs rolling over, and the market still pricing meaningful odds of a hike. On equities, Dillian walked the top 50 S&P charts and sees semis, healthcare, and financials topping — the broker-dealers look worst — while Intel and Oracle look like they're bottoming. He and Jack debate whether the semiconductor washout is over, disagree on where the leverage actually sits (Jack cites Vanda data showing retail positioning in semis near two-year lows), and Dillian warns that the Situational Awareness blowup was the Bear Stearns of this cycle, not the Lehman. He explains why he thinks AI is a bubble for a reason specific to this cycle: it's the first time in his career he's seen tech financed with debt rather than equity, at 6% coupons, for assets that go obsolete in three years. He also lays out his cautiously bullish gold view, why copper is his least favorite metal, why private credit still hasn't found a bottom, and the case for The Awesome Portfolio — equal weights in stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and real estate, which gives up one to two points of annual return but halves volatility and has never drawn down more than 12%. Recorded September 1, 2026.
Jared’s new book, “The Awesome Portfolio”: https://lnk.to/theawesomeportfolio
Jared Dillian on X https://x.com/dailydirtnap
Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96
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