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DISCUSSION
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EPISODE
Bitcoin is back in bullish territory. But there’s a problem: liquidity is turning down, the market is pricing more Fed hikes, and macro should theoretically be working against Bitcoin.
So why is BTC still moving higher?
In this update, I break down the key technical and on-chain signals suggesting Bitcoin’s bear market may be ending, the crucial $78K–$80K area to watch, continued ETF demand, and the surprising red signal coming from our liquidity model.
We also look at the bigger macro question: are markets pricing too many rate hikes? If oil and inflation expectations reverse, those hikes could quickly get priced back out — potentially turning today’s macro headwind into Bitcoin’s next major tailwind.
Could Bitcoin already be front-running the next liquidity shift?
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Chapters:
00:00 Introduction and Market Overview
02:08 Market Value to Realized Value and Bear Market Signals
04:20 Price Recalibration and Key Support Zones
06:34 Macro Headwinds and Liquidity Cycle Indicators
09:32 Historical Context of Rate Hikes and Bitcoin
11:16 Oil Prices, Geopolitics, and Market Impact
12:38 Geopolitical Risks and Market Strategies
13:55 Inflation Expectations and Yield Curve Dynamics
14:21 Interest Rate Expectations and Market Outlook
15:11 Closing Remarks and Future Developments
Disclaimer
The publications on this website and in these videos, including any references and links, are provided for information purposes only and do not constitute investment advice, investment analysis, or an offer or recommendation to buy or sell financial instruments. They do not replace investment or other professional advice. The information reflects the state of knowledge at the time of preparation and may be changed at any time without notice. The content is intended for natural people only. No liability is accepted for the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information provided, its sources, or for any resulting losses or damages. Liability for slight negligence is excluded. Marketing communication. Not investment advice. Investing involves risk. Transactions in Bitcoin may result in the total loss of the capital invested.
