Michael Wolff and Joanna Coles look ahead to the midterms and ask whether Donald Trump’s political dominance is finally starting to crack—or whether Democrats are getting ahead of themselves. They break down the unreliable polling, Trump’s unusual ability to bring hesitant voters back to his side at the last moment, the races that could determine control of the House and Senate, and the surprising Republican confidence that they can hold key states including Texas. They also examine Trump’s record of backing risky candidates like Ken Paxton, the enormous sums being poured into competitive races, and how Trump is already trying to shape the rules of the election through mail voting restrictions, redistricting and polling-place monitoring. But the most consequential question comes at the end: if Trump loses and declares the election rigged, will the people around him finally distance themselves—or once again follow him beyond the bounds of what is politically acceptable?

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