In 2026 wars and small conflicts seem endemic around the world and threats to international security appear to be increasing. Yet, there remains a lack of discussion on the role of climate change in driving conflict. With food security becoming an urgent priority around the globe, while melting glaciers reshape our geography, and the competition for natural resources heats up, there is an urgent need to better understand the climate crisis as an international security issue.
The first quarter of the twenty first century has already shown that drought is a leading indicator of conflict. What other threats can we anticipate by monitoring our rapidly deteriorating climate? We discuss this question and the topic of why climate change is our biggest security challenge with Arthur Snell, an expert on geopolitics and author of the book ‘Elemental: The New Geography of Climate Change and How We Survive It’.
Episode Outline
01:24 — Arthur's background: Foreign Office postings in Yemen, Iraq and Afghanistan, and how he came to write about climate and geopolitics
05:25 — The Sahel: the role of climate alongside other factors in regional instability
07:15 — Perceptions of climate change and why some politicians question it
13:23 — The challenge governments face in communicating the costs of climate policy and defence
16:40 — COP summits, the 1.5°C target, and what has and hasn't been achieved internationally
22:52 — Climate as a catalyst in conflict
26:34 — Different energy strategies
30:17 — Climate change as a national security consideration
32:31 — Ukraine: critical minerals and agricultural land as factors in the conflict
33:51 — The relationship between aid budgets, defence spending, and stability
36:40 — The global food system: supply chains, agricultural yields and trade dependencies
39:45 — Water: shared river basins, dam building and displacement from rising sea levels
44:10 — Developments in renewable energy costs and scale
50:47 — Consumer-led adoption of solar power in South Asia and Africa
53:49 — AI data centres and future energy demand
59:27 — Arthur's book and his podcast Behind the Lines
Resources and Links
- Elemental: The New Geography of Climate Change and How We Survive It by Arthur Snell
- Behind the Lines with Arthur Snell - https://www.playpodcast.net/podcast/behind-the-lines-with-arthur-snell/
