Canada-U.S. tariffs are back, and Canadian investors are asking what they mean for their portfolios. Canadian equity portfolio manager Vijay Viswanathan and fixed income portfolio manager Crista Caughlin break down the tariff picture and last month's Canada Investment Summit across stocks and bonds. They cover why the equity portfolio carries little trade-exposed revenue once exempt commodities like oil and potash are set aside, why unemployment matters more than tariffs for Canadian banks, and how a new business-investment tax deduction pulls the effective rate below the U.S. The conversation closes on a simple idea: what the summit needs now is shovels in the ground, not sound bites on TV.
Key Takeaways
The macro backdrop has reversed since 2025: inflation is grinding higher on oil, and the Bank of Canada may hike rather than cut.
The 50% tariff headline overstated reality; USMCA held up and exempt commodities kept trade-exposed revenue low.
About 45% of the Canadian equity portfolio's revenue is CAD and roughly 30% USD, but little is in goods tariffs can easily target.
For banks, unemployment is the KPI that matters; loan losses follow job losses, and diversified business mixes add resilience.
A new tax deduction pulls the effective rate on new investment toward 6% versus roughly 16% in the U.S., but market access still constrains exporters.
The summit's trillion-dollar ambition means a decade of debt issuance, with crowding-out risk against hyperscaler and AI borrowing.
Host: Andrew Johnson, Institutional Portfolio Manager
Guest: Crista Caughlin, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager
Guest: Vijay Viswanathan, Director of Research, Canadian Equity Portfolio Manager
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