Stephen Lake, CEO of Jetson, is quoting whole-home heat pump installs at 30–50% below competitive prices — and he has closed-loop performance data from over a thousand installs to back up every claim. In this conversation, we unpack how Jetson's vertically integrated model works, why Stephen thinks Manual J overstates heat loads by 30–40%, and what every layer of the HVAC supply chain should take from a company that just raised $60M to scale nationally. A shot across the bow of the entire HVAC industry.
Expect to Learn:
Why Jetson's vertically integrated model allows them to quote heat pump installs at 30–50% below competitive prices — and what layers of the traditional HVAC supply chain they've collapsed to get there
How Jetson uses closed-loop performance data from over a thousand installs to confirm — not just predict — the accuracy of their load calcs and system designs
Why Stephen believes typical Manual J calculations overstate actual heat loads by 30–40%, and what the industry should do about it
Why most duct work "problems" in heat pump retrofits are really oversizing problems in disguise
What HVAC incumbents — OEMs, distributors, installers, and industry bodies — should take from a company trying to do to HVAC what Tesla did to cars
Timestamps:
[00:00] – Episode Teaser
[05:20] – What Jetson Actually Is (Not a Typical HVAC Company)
[07:28] – Stephen’s Background: From AR Startup to Climate Tech
[12:49] – The Real Problem: Cost and Friction in Buying Heat Pumps
[19:15] – The Jetson Experience: 2-Minute Quote to 1-Day Install
[23:58] – Closed-Loop Data: The Advantage Nobody Else Has
[25:09] – The Oversizing Problem (And Why Duct Issues Are Misdiagnosed)
[32:00] – Why Manual J Gets It Wrong
[44:40] – Why Jetson Is 30–50% Cheaper
[49:43] – The Bigger Mission: Electrification and Urgency
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