On today’s podcast, The Washington Monthly’s Bill Scher talks with Matt about:
— Abdul El-Sayed told CNN he will win Michigan by 7 points, while recent public polls mostly show leads of 1–4
— El-Sayed reportedly reached out o Hasan Piker, asking him to lay low.
— Why Michigan, Maine, and Minnesota look softer for Democrats than Texas
— Bill’s own poll average (all non-internal polls, fixed recent window) model
— Can the polls be trusted this close to the midterms?
— The alternative reading of “missing” Republican respondents: demoralized rural voters hit by tariffs, diesel, and fertilizer costs rather than only “"shy Trump” voters
— Texas as a GOP money sinkhole: Ken Paxton’s weak fundraising and leaked complaint that he does not control his own campaign’s message
— Candidate quality across the map (Talarico, Roy Cooper, others) and whether Chuck Schumer’s recruitment record looks better people think
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– Who is Matt Lewis? –Matt K. Lewis is a political commentator and the author of Filthy Rich Politicians.
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