In this episode of the Market Mamas Podcast, Becky Gaskell explores market seasonality and why historical patterns should provide context - not dictate your trades.
She breaks down seasonal trends across the S&P 500, Nasdaq, gold, and other markets, including September weakness, the Santa Claus rally, and the “Sell in May” idea. Most importantly, she explains why price action, current market conditions, and risk management should always come before seasonal assumptions.
Becky also reflects on the different “seasons” traders experience and why staying adaptable is essential for long-term growth.
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Key Takeaways:
Seasonality Is Context: Use historical trends as background, not as a standalone trade signal.
September Tends to Be Weaker: The S&P 500 has historically struggled more in September, with stronger averages later in the year.
Bullish Months Can Still Be Choppy: Positive monthly returns do not guarantee clean intraday trading.
Current Catalysts Matter: Earnings, rates, elections, and geopolitics can override seasonal patterns.
Santa Claus Rally Is Specific: It refers to the final five trading days of December and the first two of January.
Every Market Has Its Own Rhythm: Seasonality varies across stocks, indices, gold, oil, and other instruments.
Episode Timestamps:
[00:00:00] - Intro: Historical trends for September through December.
[00:03:20] - Context, Not Prediction: Why seasonality should never replace price action.
[00:06:56] - September Weakness: Historical S&P 500 performance in September.
[00:9:59] - Nasdaq Q4 Strength: Why Nasdaq has historically performed well later in the year.
[00:15:01] - Election Volatility: Why election seasons can increase market uncertainty.
[00:18:34] - January Strength: Historical January performance in Nasdaq and gold.
[00:21:58] - Summer Trading Challenges: Why bullish months can still feel choppy intraday.
[00:26:52] - Gold & Commodity Seasonality: How different markets follow different seasonal rhythms.
[00:28:43] - Traders Have Seasons Too: Growth, drawdowns, bad habits, and rebuilding.
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