In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ breaks down Lime’s S-1 as the scooter company heads toward the public markets. He gets into the $1.8B valuation, Wayne Ting’s turnaround playbook, Lime’s unit economics, the post-Covid recovery, and the debt wall that may be forcing the IPO window open.
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LINKS:
Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN
CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/
Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com
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TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 Intro
1:48 What Lime does
2:47 Phoenix rising from the ashes
3:53 Revenue: $887M, 29% growth
6:38 Gross margin and the depreciation trick
7:53 Adjusted EBITDA: $218M, up 42%
8:27 Why the net loss got bigger
9:54 Sponsors — SpendHound | Brex | Aleph
13:08 Revenue per vehicle per day
13:42 Marketing: only 2% of revenue
14:01 Subscription mix: 28% and rising
14:25 The debt: $821M but most converts
15:37 The turnaround story
16:42 What Wayne found taking over
17:31 The three numbers he locked in on
18:05 The warehouse overhaul
19:31 Sponsors — RightRev | Rillet | EY
22:33 The debt deep dive
23:20 Why the net loss widened
24:27 Post-IPO: nearly debt free
25:07 Why more scooters make each scooter worth more
28:43 How a scooter pays for itself
30:43 The swappable battery
32:39 Is this a real moat?
34:14 Red flag 1: going concern
35:11 Red flag 2: depreciation change before IPO
36:11 Red flag 3: permits can disappear
36:32 Red flag 4: Uber is everything
37:24 Red flag 5: vehicles catch fire
37:56 Valuation: under 2x revenue
39:55 Comps: between Lyft and Uber
40:55 Bull vs. bear
41:52 Legal name is Neutron Holdings
42:47 Credits
