Japan's 30-year government bond yield hit a record 4.18 per cent, a event Felix Nikolas Prehn argues is a dress rehearsal for what awaits the United States and other heavily indebted economies. The episode traces the so-called widow maker trade, which bet against Japanese bonds for three decades and has now finally paid off, wiping more than 200 billion dollars from Japanese equities in a single session. Prehn draws parallels between today's AI-driven speculation and the NASDAQ bubble of 2000, noting that global yields have reached levels not seen since 2007 or earlier. He examines how the dollar has lost roughly 88 per cent of its purchasing power since 1971 and warns that the paper gold market carries far more claims than physical metal in vaults. Many gold funds, he notes, hold no actual bars, leaving holders with promises rather than protection.

In this episode:
00:00 Japan's 30-year bond yield hits an all-time high of 4.18 per cent
01:00 The widow maker trade finally pays off after three decades
05:02 How the Bank of Japan suppressed rates by buying its own debt
06:02 The yen weakens as the price of sustained money printing
07:02 AI capital spending collides with rising global interest rates
08:04 Parallels between today's valuations and the NASDAQ 2000 crash
10:05 US 30-year yields touch 5.3 per cent amid a global bond sell-off
12:09 The dollar has lost 88 per cent of purchasing power since 1971

Sources mentioned:
Financial Times (global bond sell-off reporting), https://www.ft.com
Warren Buffett (referenced via associate remarks on internet bubble)
Kevin Warsh (Federal Reserve)

Felix Nikolas Prehn is an economist and former investment banker. He co-founded TradeVision.io and founded Winston Daily and The Prehn Institute. The Prehn Institute gives no financial advice, and neither does this podcast.

Newsletter: Winston Daily, https://winstondaily.com
Research: https://prehninstitute.com
Author site: https://felixprehn.com

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