How certain can great powers ever be about the intentions of their rivals, and what happens when that uncertainty becomes a permanent feature of international politics? In this episode, Professor Sebastian Rosato joins us to discuss 'intentions pessimism', the limits of information, and what uncertainty means for great-power conflict, diplomacy, and the study of international relations.
Sebastian Rosato is Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame, where he is also a fellow of the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, the Liu Institute for Asia and Asian Studies, and the Nanovic Institute for European Studies.
Selected Publications
Chapters
00:00 Introduction
02:10 Is 'intentions pessimism' a structural or epistemological argument—or are the two inseparable?
04:38 Endemic uncertainty in international relations
06:33 The role of first- and secondhand information
12:48 Waltzian neorealism vs. 'intentions pessimism'
15:27 Has 'intentions pessimism' changed Professor Rosato's stance on IR?
18:11 Is 'intentions pessimism' applicable to great powers only?
20:44 Truism and falsifiability questions
22:20 Which IR theory draws the most criticism of 'intentions pessimism'?
24:50 Liberal institutionalism and constructivism vs. 'intentions pessimism'
28:05 How 'intentions pessimism' works across different regime types
31:41 Case study selection and theory grounding
37:42 Material vs. ideational explanations
40:07 Is 'intentions pessimism' about states or leaders?
42:50 Signals intelligence, satellite surveillance, and AI: do new technologies change the information problem?
46:17 The role of diplomacy and statecraft
47:54 Uncertainty in foreign policy analysis
53:46 How do we make progress in IR theory?
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