Churchill's Ken Kencel on Private Credit's Second Act

Private credit isn’t the new story anymore. The more interesting questions are about what happens as the industry matures. That's where my conversation with Churchill CEO Ken Kencel begins.

I found myself coming back to one phrase from our conversation: "the sediment at the bottom of the barrel." It's how Kencel explains why the highest-returning private credit manager isn't necessarily the best one. In credit, headline returns can look attractive for years until the weakest loans finally reveal themselves. Only then do investors discover what was really sitting at the bottom of the portfolio.

The same thing comes up again as we turn to retail. Kencel argues that recent redemption pressures say less about private credit itself, but rather that investors and managers are still adjusting to the realities of an illiquid asset class. As he puts it, private credit isn't "semi-liquid." It's fundamentally illiquid, and products need to reflect that.

Another part of the conversation I found particularly interesting was Churchill's role as both a lender and an investor in hundreds of private equity funds. I asked why private equity firms would allow one of their lenders into their funds. Kencel's answer was that Churchill isn't just another lender. As a long-term LP, the firm has relationships that extend well beyond individual loans, giving it a different perspective on managers, businesses, and opportunities across private markets.

We also discussed where he sees legitimate stress building today, why relationships still matter in the middle market despite the industry's growth, and what institutional investors should be paying closer attention to as private credit enters its next phase.