In this episode of RiskMasters, I speak with Grant Purdy about risk management, uncertainty and the relationship between risk and better decision-making.
Grant has spent almost five decades working in risk and decision-making. He was a nominated expert involved in the development of ISO 31000, contributed to ISO Guide 73 and helped shape ISO/IEC 31010.
He is also co-author, with the late Roger Estall, of Deciding, a practical guide designed to help people make better decisions.
Our conversation examines how risk management has evolved, why Grant believes parts of the profession have become disconnected from decision-making, and what boards, executives and risk professionals can do differently.
“Certainty is a total illusion. It can never be achieved. Sufficient certainty is as good as we can get.” – Grant Purdy
🎯 What You Will Learn
Why risk management should ultimately improve decision-making
How to make decisions without waiting for impossible certainty
Why identifying and monitoring assumptions strengthens governance
Where risk matrices and risk appetite can create false confidence
How AI can support judgement without replacing accountability
🕒 Episode Highlights
01:23 - What ISO 31000 was originally trying to achieve
Grant traces the development of ISO 31000 from AS/NZS 4360 and explains why creating useful information for decision-making was central to the original approach.
06:03 - Where risk management lost its way
We discuss the different philosophies that emerged around risk management and why Grant believes the profession needs to reconnect risk with decision support.
10:29 - Uncertainty, assumptions and sufficient certainty
Grant explains why decisions require clarity about purpose, opportunity, desired outcomes and the assumptions on which they depend.
16:08 - The danger of seeking certainty
Why waiting for complete information can produce analysis paralysis, missed opportunities and delayed action.
21:10 - What risk matrices can and cannot tell us
Grant explains why a useful prioritisation tool can become misleading when organisations treat it as a form of quantitative analysis.
24:20 - Governance, regulation and decision-making
A provocative discussion about the relationship between standards, regulation and consultancy, and why governance should ultimately be concerned with how decisions are made.
32:49 - Why well-governed organisations still make poor decisions
We explore unclear purpose, hidden assumptions, predetermined outcomes, insufficient challenge and weak monitoring.
36:49 - AI and the future of decision support
Grant considers how AI can broaden context, challenge bias and surface assumptions, alongside the dangers of allowing technology to substitute for human judgement.
41:01 - The future of the risk profession
Why Grant believes risk professionals should broaden their capabilities and become facilitators of better organisational decisions.
44:02 - Better decisions begin with purpose
Grant closes with the principle at the heart of his approach to decision-making.
👤 About Grant Purdy
Grant Purdy has almost five decades of experience working in risk management and decision-making. He chaired the Standards Australia and Standards New Zealand risk management committee for ten years and was a nominated expert involved in developing ISO 31000.
Grant on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/grant-purdy-4ba1925/
Learn more about Deciding: https://www.sufficientcertainty.com/book
📚 Related Resources
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