In January 1981, American hostages were released from Iran within hours of Reagan's inauguration. Forty-five years later — to within 30 hours — Andrew Pancholi told his subscribers an Iran conflict was about to begin. He was right. This is not luck. It’s mathematics — and in this conversation with Dwayne Kerrigan, Andrew breaks down exactly how cycle analysis works, what it's telling us about real estate, geopolitics, and the global economy right now, and what business owners and investors should be doing with that information.
In Part 1 of this episode:
- The 18.6-year real estate cycle: why we are currently at the same position in the cycle as 2007 — just before the Global Financial Crisis — and what the smart money did last time, and what to do now
- The 100-year pandemic cycle — how Spanish flu, cholera, and COVID all followed the same pattern, and why Andrew saw COVID coming
- The 90-year geopolitical cycle: how the polarization, rise of nationalism, anti-immigration sentiment, and challenges to global order we're seeing now mirror the 1930s decade almost exactly — including the economic conditions that led to the rise of fascism
- The 250-year empire cycle — America at a tipping point, the petrodollar's quiet expiry, and China's strategic expansion while the West was distracted
- Why Andrew predicted the Israel-Iran conflict to within 30 hours — the convergence of a 45-year cycle, a 90-year cycle, and a 36-year cycle, and why Netanyahu's personal history from the 1976 Entebbe raid has driven his policy decisions in Gaza and Lebanon
- The AI boom through the lens of cycles — why every major boom is fueled by new technology, and whether the return on investment can justify what's going in.
Note: This conversation is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Episode Highlights:
00:00 - Hidden Patterns Teaser
00:30 - Podcast Intro Setup
01:03 - Meet Andrew Pancholi
04:39 - Why Cycles Matter
07:06 - Real Estate Cycle
08:44 - Big Cycles 2029 Risk
12:15 - What Should We Do
15:38 - Seven Year Life Cycles
19:43 - Forecasting Iran Conflict
24:25 - Pandemic Cycle Evidence
29:29 - Boom Signals And Technology
35:45 - Real Estate Action Steps
40:09 - Timing the Property Cycle
41:38 - Strategy Over FOMO
43:25 - Cycle Experts and Herd Signals
45:53 - Geopolitics in 90 Years
48:44 - The 250 Year Empire Shift
58:11 - Petrodollar and BRICS Challenge
01:06:21 - China’s Resource Playbook
01:11:38 - War Outlook Russia Ukraine Taiwan
01:15:31 - What to Watch Next
01:18:01 - Wrap Up and Disclaimers
Resources mentioned:
- Zero Hour — book by Andrew Pancholi and Harry S. Dent Jr.
- The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking — book by Philip Anderson
- The Secret Wealth Advantage — book by Akhil Patel
- The Art of War — book by Sun Tzu
- The Market Timing Report — markettimingreport.com
Quotes:
“The minute you start a conflict, a physical conflict, you have lost the war.” - Andrew Pancholi
“The markets are an indication of the psychology of the world. That's the way I've always been trained and always looked at it, is that it is gonna give you what the psychology of the world is looking at things from a economic standpoint.” - Dwayne Kerrigan
“ If you don't have to buy, keep saving, 'cause the chances are the house prices will come down, and then when we get to about 2031, 2032, that might be a good time to start looking.” - Andrew Pancholi
“ Religious texts, philosophical texts, they all hide mathematical patterns within them. There is something secret hidden away. I mean, it's an open secret if you go and study it, but there are some patterns and years, certain mathematical patterns that do repeat in the bigger picture.” - Andrew Pancholi
“ I put the, uh, message out on the Thursday evening to our subscribers saying, "This is gonna kick off, uh, I believe on tomorrow or, or Saturday," and it actually happened on Saturday. So depending on where you are in the world, it was maximum 30 hours out.” - Andrew Pancholi
Andrew Pancholi is the founder and CEO of The Market Timing Report, a global macro research service used by professional investors, portfolio managers, and family offices to identify risk windows and periods of asymmetric opportunity. For over 40 years, he has forecast turning points in markets including the S&P 500, gold, oil, and Bitcoin using time cycle analysis built on the methods of W.D. Gann, Edward Dewey, and Ralph Elliott. He is co-author of the bestselling book Zero Hour with Harry S. Dent Jr. and a board member of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. Before market timing, Andrew spent decades as a senior pilot for a major flag carrier airline, including roles as Training Captain and Training Standards Captain.
Connect with Andrew Pancholi: https://andrewpancholi.com/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewpancholi/
The Market Timing Report — markettimingreport.com
Connect with Dwayne Kerrigan
Facebook
Instagram
Linked In
Website
Disclaimer: The views, information, or opinions expressed by guests during The Dwayne Kerrigan Podcast are solely those of the individuals involved and do not necessarily represent those of Dwayne Kerrigan and his affiliates. Dwayne Kerrigan or The Dwayne Kerrigan Podcast is not responsible for and does not verify the accuracy of any of the information contained in the podcast series. The primary purpose of this podcast is to educate and inform. Listeners are advised to consult with a qualified professional or specialist before making any decisions based on the content of this podcast.
