Retail Sales Miss, Confidence Drops Too | S3 E160 | 08-14-26

Today's data on the consumer wasn't good. July retail sales fell 0.3%, missing expectations for a 0.2% gain, following a decline the month before. Megan Horneman breaks down what's behind the pullback and why the control group number, which feeds directly into GDP, matters even more than the headline.

In this episode:

- Why July retail sales fell 0.3% instead of rising as expected
- What the control group reading tells us about GDP
- Why restaurant spending rose 0.5% even as other categories pulled back
- Consumer confidence's first drop in three months
- Why one-year inflation expectations rising to 4.3% matters to the Fed
- What upcoming labor market and PCE data could mean for a September rate decision

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For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.fm

#RetailSales #ConsumerConfidence #Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MarketsWithMegan #EconomicData #Fed2026 #ConsumerSpending #RateDecision

https://youtu.be/P3zMj-JpZ8s

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