STRAT | 12 SEP 2026 | What About Bab…el-Mandeb

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of the world’s most strategically important maritime chokepoints—and renewed Houthi activity could make it even more consequential. In this episode of STRAT, retired Marine Intelligence Officer LtCol. Hal Kempfer examines the Houthis’ reported expansion along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and the strategic importance of controlling territory overlooking this vital shipping corridor. Hal explains how disruption at Bab el-Mandeb reverberates through the Suez Canal, global shipping routes, energy markets, and international supply chains. He traces Yemen’s complicated history of civil war and foreign intervention while examining Iran’s relationship with the Houthis and the implications for Saudi Arabia and regional security. With maritime commerce, oil transportation, military alliances, and Iran’s regional proxy network all intersecting around this narrow waterway, Hal assesses what Saudi Arabia and its partners may do next—and why developments in Yemen could have consequences extending far beyond the Red Sea.

Takeaways:

• Bab el-Mandeb remains a critical global maritime chokepoint.
• Houthi coastal gains strengthen maritime surveillance capabilities.
• Red Sea disruption threatens international shipping and supply chains.
• Longer African routes substantially increase shipping costs and transit.
• Yemen’s history complicates prospects for another foreign intervention.
• Saudi Arabia faces increasing pressure to confront Houthi expansion.
• Iranian proxy relationships magnify Yemen’s broader strategic importance.
• Houthi developments could reshape Middle Eastern security calculations.

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