Jim Bianco says there's one risk that could send stocks down 15 to 20%—and almost nobody is pricing it in.
In this episode, Jim Iuorio and Bob Iaccino sit down with Jim Bianco, President and CEO of Bianco Research, to break down what markets are ignoring right now. Bianco lays out why the Strait of Hormuz staying closed longer than expected is the real tail risk nobody's talking about, and why tech keeps hitting all-time highs despite the macro uncertainty around it.
They get into why software stocks are getting crushed by agentic AI while semiconductors rip higher, which AI tools are actually worth paying for, what's driving bond yields and inflation expectations, the case for gold and the dollar debasement trade, and why private credit's exposure to software companies could be the next place real stress shows up.
If you want to understand what could actually move markets 20% from here, this is the conversation.
Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and Guest Overview 03:07 Will the Market Work Itself Out This Time 04:57 The Strait of Hormuz and What It Means for Oil 07:25 What Would Make Stocks Drop 15-20% 10:45 Big Tech as a Global Safe Haven Trade 12:20 Why Software Stocks Are Getting Crushed by AI 14:29 Agentic AI: Beyond Google Search on Steroids 16:36 Which AI Tool Should You Actually Pay For 22:42 Bond Market: Inflation, Nominal Growth and Rates 26:19 Can the US Become the Supplier of Last Resort 31:33 The Debasement Trade: Gold, Bitcoin and the Dollar 36:08 How Does One Go Bankrupt? Slowly, Then All at Once 37:29 Government Stakes in Airlines: Socialism or Smart 43:03 The Intel Example and Why Government Ownership Fails 46:07 What Caused the Software Selloff Before the War 48:31 Data Centers: Why You Can't Get Rid of Them 50:01 Nuclear Power and the AI Energy Problem 51:25 Self-Driving Cars and the Insurance Thesis 56:27 Private Credit's Massive Software Problem 59:51 Is Private Credit a Systemic Risk
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