For nearly eighty years, Europe's security has rested on a single assumption: that the Americans would be there. In early March, days into the war with Iran, and weeks after Washington threatened to take Greenland from a NATO ally, we sat down with Jeremy Shapiro to ask whether that assumption still holds, and what Europe does if it doesn't.
Since this conversation was recorded, the Pentagon has ordered thousands of American troops out of Germany, canceled an armored brigade deployment to Poland, and told allies that future U.S. force levels will depend on how well they align with Washington's priorities. France has offered its nuclear umbrella to eight European countries. And at last week's NATO summit in Ankara, President Trump suggested the United States could remove its soldiers from Europe entirely.
Shapiro saw much of this coming. He explains why Europeans no longer trust the American security guarantee, why they can't yet walk away from it, and what a European defense built to operate without the United States would look like, if the political will lasts long enough to build it.
Can Europe defend itself before the American umbrella closes? And what happens to the alliance if the answer is no?
Join us for this special recap edition featuring Jeremy Shapiro, Research Director at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
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