Northern China is entering its most critical flood-control period, with meteorologists warning that an early rainy season and increasingly volatile weather patterns could heighten the risk of severe flooding in the weeks ahead.
我国北方已进入防汛关键期，气象专家提醒，汛期提前、天气形势愈发多变，未来数周发生严重洪涝灾害的风险将有所上升。
The rainy season in North China officially began on July 10, eight days earlier than the long-term average, according to the National Climate Center.
国家气候中心数据显示，华北地区7月10日正式入汛，较常年平均时间提前8天。
"The rainy season this year has arrived both early and with remarkable intensity," said Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at the center.
国家气候中心首席预报员陈丽娟表示：“今年汛期不仅来得早，降雨强度也十分突出。”
She said an active Northeast China cold vortex — a persistent upper-level weather system that often triggers prolonged rainfall — has contributed to unusually heavy precipitation across northeastern and northern China since June.
她介绍，东北冷涡活动频繁，这一持久的高空天气系统极易引发持续性降雨，自6月以来，我国东北、华北地区降水便异常偏多。
The rainy season in Northeast China began on June 4, nine days earlier than average. Since June 1, rainfall has been well above normal across most of the region and North China.
东北6月4日入汛，较常年提前9天。6月1日至今，东北大部、华北地区降雨量均显著高于常年均值。
The early onset follows months of exceptionally heavy rainfall that have already left much of the region saturated before the traditional peak flood season.
早在主汛期来临前，连续数月的强降雨已让北方大部分区域土壤含水量趋于饱和，如今汛期再度提前到来。
From April 1 to July 12, average precipitation across northern China reached 228.6 millimeters, 23.1 percent above the long-term average and the highest for the same period in the past decade, the center said.
国家气候中心称，4月1日至7月12日，北方地区平均降水量达228.6毫米，较常年同期偏多23.1%，为近十年同期最高值。
In North China, average rainfall totaled 288.4 mm, 62.5 percent above normal and the highest for the same period since records began to be maintained.
其中华北地区平均降雨量288.4毫米，较常年偏多62.5%，创下有气象记录以来同期降水极值。
Hebei province and Tianjin both recorded their wettest April 1 to July 12 period since meteorological records began in 1961.
河北、天津两地4月1日至7月12日的降雨量，均为1961年有完整气象观测以来同期最高。
Large parts of Hebei have received more than 50 percent above-average rainfall, while some eastern areas of the province recorded as much as 12 times their normal precipitation. Much of Liaoning province has also received more than twice its normal rainfall.
河北大部地区降水较常年偏多五成以上，省内东部局部区域降雨量更是达到常年同期的12倍；辽宁大部分区域降雨量也达到常年两倍以上。
The unusually wet start has heightened concerns during the main flood season, which runs roughly from July 16 to Aug 15 and is traditionally the most challenging period for flood control.
降水异常偏多的前期气候背景，让主汛期防汛压力陡增。主汛期大致为7月16日至8月15日，历来是防汛工作难度最大的阶段。
About one-third of North China's annual precipitation typically falls during those four weeks.
华北全年约三分之一的降水都会集中在这四周内。
Forecasters said the saturated ground could leave many river basins and mountainous areas more vulnerable to flooding if additional rounds of intense rainfall develop.
预报人员表示，土壤含水量已趋于饱和，若后续再遭遇多轮强降雨，各大流域与山区将极易发生洪涝。
The center forecasts above-normal precipitation across most of northern China during the upcoming flood-control period, with rainfall expected to exceed seasonal averages by 20 to 50 percent in parts of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Heilongjiang and the Inner Mongolia autonomous region.
国家气候中心预测，本轮防汛期北方大部降水仍将偏多，北京、天津、河北、辽宁、黑龙江、内蒙古部分地区降雨量较常年同期偏多20%至50%。
Meteorologists warned that some areas could experience extreme downpours capable of triggering floods, flash floods and landslides.
气象专家警示，局部地区将出现特大暴雨，极易诱发洪水、山洪以及山体滑坡。
"The background of climate warming is making weather more extreme and more complex, while climate patterns themselves are changing," said Chen Tao, chief forecaster at the China Meteorological Administration.
国家气象中心首席预报员陈涛表示：“气候变暖大背景下，天气极端性、复杂性持续加剧，各类气候模态也在发生变化。”
"As a result, monitoring and forecasting have become more difficult. High-impact extreme weather events are occurring more frequently, often exceeding historical experience and traditional design standards," he said.
他说：“这也给监测预报工作带来更大挑战，高影响极端天气频发，其强度时常突破历史纪录与传统设防标准。”
Chen said the interaction between global warming and large-scale climate patterns such as El Nino means weather disasters are increasingly occurring simultaneously across multiple regions rather than as isolated events.
陈涛指出，全球变暖叠加厄尔尼诺等大尺度气候系统的共同作用，气象灾害不再局限于单一区域，多地同步受灾的情况愈发多见。
In response, flood prevention efforts will focus on strengthening weather monitoring and early warning systems in northern river basins while improving coordination among meteorological agencies, the administration said.
国家气象局表示，针对这一形势，防汛工作将重点强化北方流域气象监测预警体系，完善各气象部门联动协同机制。
Authorities have been urged to intensify monitoring during high-risk periods, such as overnight heavy rainfall, and strengthen emergency coordination for flash floods, geological disasters and flooding along small and medium-sized rivers.
各地主管部门被要求加强夜间暴雨等高风险时段的监测值守，完善山洪、地质灾害、中小河流洪水的应急联动处置机制。
Residents are advised to pay close attention to weather alerts and avoid entering mountainous areas and river valleys during and immediately after heavy rain, as rapidly developing flash floods are among the deadliest hazards during North China's rainy season.
气象部门提醒市民密切关注气象预警，暴雨期间及雨后切勿进入山区、河谷地带；突发性山洪是华北汛期致死风险最高的灾害类型之一。
volatile /ˈvɒlətaɪl/多变的
precipitation /prɪˌsɪpɪˈteɪʃn/降水量
saturated /ˈsætʃəreɪtɪd/饱和的
landslide /ˈlændslaɪd/山体滑坡
simultaneous /ˌsɪmlˈteɪniəs/同步发生的
geological /ˌdʒiːəˈlɒdʒɪkl/地质的
