The $1.75T IPO No One Can Price | 6 Things That Surprised Us This Week

This week’s Excess Returns Weekly Wrap looks at the market stories that surprised us most, including the potential SpaceX IPO, extreme valuations, market structure, AI disruption, value investing, tech leadership and oil prices. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down clips from Cameron Dawson, Kai Wu, Jim Paulsen and Dave Nadig on what investors should understand about valuation, index flows, disruption and market leadership.

Topics Covered:

• Why the SpaceX IPO could test how investors think about growth, valuation and market structure

• Cameron Dawson on what 80 to 100 times sales implies for a company as large as SpaceX

• The Palantir comparison and why great growth can still get priced in too early

• Kai Wu on why traditional value investing struggles in industries exposed to technological disruption

• How value investing has performed differently in exposed versus insulated sectors

• Jim Paulsen on the shift from Magnificent Seven leadership to small cap tech and unprofitable tech stocks

• Dave Nadig on why SpaceX’s small free float and index inclusion mechanics could distort price discovery

• Why forced index buying, options trading and pre-positioning could make the first 30 days of SpaceX trading chaotic

• Kai Wu on AI disruption, software stocks and why dispersion creates both opportunity and risk

• Jim Paulsen on why the biggest stock market pressure from oil spikes may come after oil prices peak

Timestamps:

00:54 What surprised us most this week
05:27 What 100x sales means for SpaceX investors
10:52 Why value investing still works outside disrupted industries
15:45 Why risky market leadership can continue longer than investors expect
20:53 Why SpaceX’s low free float matters for index funds
25:23 AI disruption and the opportunity in software dispersion
29:23 How dispersion creates winners and destroys funds
33:46 Why oil peaks can pressure the economy with a lag