Container shipping has become "advantage carrier", according to John McCown of The McCown Report. US demand on the transpacific has been flat for a second year, yet spot rates have soared, and by John's count carriers made around $6bn in net income in the second quarter, seven times the first. So what can shippers actually do about it?
In this container shipping special, produced with the support of Dimerco Express Group, Mike King is joined by three people who track this market more closely than most:
John McCown, publisher of The McCown Report and author of Giants of the Sea
Nick Bailey, co-founder of The Signal House and former lead analyst for logistics and services at A.P. Moller-Maersk
Jimmy Suroto, founder of Nava Analytics & Research and a PSA veteran
We cover:
Why rates have climbed so sharply while US demand stays flat, and what John calls "gotcha surcharges"
Schedule reliability falling to 49.9% in August, the lowest since 2022 according to Sea-Intelligence, and why Nick says a global average hides your real exposure
Port congestion in Asia, a typhoon season John calls the worst in a decade, the Middle East war, and why he believes carriers have learned to profit from disruption
Why Asia-Europe and transpacific spot rates have gone in opposite directions
Nick's argument that supply chains are now constrained by architecture, not capacity, and how to separate customer, defensive and distortion demand
The long shift from West Coast to East and Gulf Coast ports, Jones Act waivers and US maritime policy
COSCO, the FMC and the 9 November deadline for US port fees on China-linked ships
Jimmy's 2027 forecast of 2% to 5% trade growth against BIMCO's forecast of 9% fleet growth, and what that wave of new ships could mean for rates
Mentioned in this episode:
▶️ EXCLUSIVE: FMC Chair Laura DiBella on Trump's Maritime Dominance & Global Enforcement Powers
https://youtu.be/GlZPTBKUzA4
Produced with the support of Dimerco Express Group (https://dimerco.com/), your trading partner connecting Asia with the US and beyond.
If you enjoy the show, please like, subscribe and leave a comment telling us what you'd like us to cover next. We're working towards 10,000 YouTube subscribers this year, and every subscribe helps.
Chapters:
00:00 Coming up
00:49 Welcome: Jimmy Suroto, Nick Bailey and John McCown
05:03 John McCown: flat US demand, soaring rates and "gotcha surcharges"
08:06 Nick Bailey: connected, cascading and compounding risk
11:04 Jimmy Suroto: what most container forecasters miss
12:10 Reliability falls to 49.9%: who is on time and who isn't
15:34 Port congestion hotspots and how carriers profit from disruption
18:40 Why transpacific and Asia-Europe spot rates split
21:27 Nick Bailey: architecture, not capacity, and why a bigger fleet won't save you
24:13 Customer, defensive and distortion demand on the transpacific
27:11 Efficiency or protection, and the headline rate trap
31:50 John McCown: advantage carrier, and the long shift to East Coast ports
34:27 Peak season, tariffs and chaos from the White House
37:30 Will container lines ever lose money again?
39:13 Jones Act waivers and the gap in US maritime policy
43:58 COSCO, the FMC and shots across the bow
47:30 Jimmy Suroto: back to baseline on the transpacific
49:25 Asia-Europe's new growth path
50:28 The Gulf and a 2% to 5% forecast for 2027
51:18 Why listen to Jimmy? His forecasting track record
51:58 A 9% bigger fleet: when does overcapacity bite?
53:35 John McCown on the 9 November port fee deadline
57:55 Nick Bailey: resilience versus efficiency in 2027
1:00:00 Thanks and goodbye
#ContainerShipping #FreightBuyersClub #OceanFreight #Suppl...
