198 - The Nuclear Paradox: Can Deterrence and Disarmament Coexist?

In this episode of Deterrence Matters, host Jim Petrosky sits down with NIDS Senior Fellow Kirk Fansher to examine one of national security’s most enduring debates: the tension between nuclear deterrence and disarmament.

Using the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists article, “The Nuclear Paradox: Why the World Wants Both Deterrence and Disarmament,” as a starting point, Jim and Kirk challenge assumptions about disarmament, minimum deterrence, and whether a world without nuclear weapons would necessarily be more stable.

They explore the risks of both minimum and maximum deterrence, the strategic roles of ICBMs, submarines, and bombers, counterforce versus countervalue targeting, and how emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities, drones, and precision strike could affect strategic stability.

At its core, this conversation asks a critical question: How do we preserve peace without creating the very instability that makes war more likely?

For anyone interested in nuclear strategy, arms control, great-power competition, and the future of deterrence, this is a conversation worth hearing.