At the height of summer, energy markets are under strain. Julien Hoarau and Olivier Gasnier, from the ENGIE EnergyScan team, unpack a news cycle dominated by the Strait of Hormuz and share their outlook for the second half of 2026.
In this episode: • Oil — Middle East escalation, Brent briefly above $100/bbl, the first signs of de-escalation, and a market with no cushions left • Gas & LNG — TTF around €60/MWh, lagging European storage (~55% in mid-July) and the crucial role of a Qatari restart • Carbon — what the 17 July EU ETS review really changes • Power — heatwave, French nuclear under environmental constraints, negative prices and record volatility • Macro — how the oil rebound feeds back into inflation and interest rates
The takeaway for H2-2026: markets are tight — and a lot hinges on Hormuz and how fast LNG can flow back to Europe before the heating season.
Recorded on 27 July 2026. Data and insights from ENGIE EnergyScan / Economic Research. This is not investment advice.
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