What I Bet - Tuesday July 14th

Griffin Warner talks sports betting for Tuesday. Griffin Warner delivers a leaner but sharp episode of What I Bet built around the only two events worth betting on this Tuesday, the World Cup semifinal between Spain and France at AT&T Stadium in Arlington and the Major League Baseball All Star Game at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Griffin opens at 0:32 by setting the stage for Spain and France, two nations that entered the tournament as co favorites at 5 to 1 odds as of July 3rd but have since diverged, with France now installed as the clear favorite needing a win in regulation to cover the spread. At 1:17 Griffin lays out his case for Spain, arguing that their possession based style works identically whether they are favored or underdogs, a trait he considers rare in knockout soccer, and noting the team is getting healthier at the right time. At 1:33 he acknowledges France's individual talent, led by Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele, both of whom scored from outside the box in a 2 to 0 quarterfinal win over Morocco discussed at 2:03, while questioning whether longtime manager Didier Deschamps offers much beyond simply fielding the more talented roster. By 2:18 Griffin lands on his headline soccer pick, backing Spain as a quarter goal underdog and urging listeners to grab the number immediately before it shifts, explaining that the quarter goal split between a pick em portion and a plus one half portion protects bettors with a partial cash return if the match extends into extra time, which he expects given Spain's discipline defending against counterattacks. At 2:48 he shares his lean on the two and a half goal total, expecting the public to favor the over given the star power on both rosters while he sees a low scoring, controlled match shaping up instead, landing at 3:19 on a combined recommendation of Spain under the total and Spain to advance outright near plus 130 depending on the sportsbook. The show pivots to baseball at 3:49, with Griffin outlining the All Star Game lines, a National League team favored at minus 128 against the American League at plus 116, and a total of eight runs priced at minus 104 to the under and minus 116 to the over. At 4:20 he explains his general approach to exhibition baseball, trusting that the sport's best pitchers will suppress even the hottest first half hitters, despite acknowledging Philadelphia's shorter outfield dimensions raise the risk profile for an under play. At 4:50 Griffin spends real time on the Toronto Blue Jays' dominant presence in All Star voting following last season's seven game World Series run, highlighting Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s selection as the American League's starting first baseman despite a career worst first half that included stretches of just five home runs, and wondering aloud whether a taxing offseason program contributed to the decline. At 5:05 he notes Blue Jays manager John Schneider is running the American League dugout, tying the assignment to Toronto's pennant winning season, and projects a National League win that should mean fewer total at bats and a lower final score. After a quick promotional break at 5:35 pointing listeners toward pregame dot com and the CUP15 discount code for 15 dollars off any package, including Griffin's World Cup All Access pass covering the tournament's final four match days for 60 dollars instead of 75, Griffin previews an upcoming return to full scale baseball coverage once the World Cup wraps this Sunday and marks the milestone of six years and 64 episodes of Pregame Network podcasting. He closes at 6:51 with his top play of the night, the under eight runs total in the All Star Game, built on the theory that elite pitching wins out over hot hitting even in a hitter friendly ballpark, and offers the under first five innings at 7:07 as a higher variance alternative for bettors wanting extra action, reasoning that without extra innings or the Manfred Man rule extending the game the first five inning number offers a cleaner read on true scoring pace. Griffin signs off previewing Tuesday's World Cup semifinal as the centerpiece of the show's next episode and thanking listeners for their continued support of What I Bet and the wider Straight Outta Vegas AM lineup on the Pregame Network. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices