Robert Pape is Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. In this episode, Robert and Robinson discuss why the Iran war has become an escalation trap for Donald Trump, the United States, and Israel. More particularly, they talk about Pape’s argument that the war has strengthened Iran while weakening America’s regional position, Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, and how cheap drones and precision weapons are changing the balance of military power. They also discuss how the 2026 midterms could prolong escalation, the limits of predicting war, how AI could make political assassinations easier, and the risks of weapons operating without human oversight. Robert’s latest book is Our Own Worst Enemies: America in the Age of Violent Populism (The New Press, 2026).
OUTLINE 00:00 Introduction 00:45 Why the Iran War Is Nowhere Near Over 08:08 How Iran Can Defy a Superpower 15:22 How Cheap Drones Changed the Balance of Power 20:31 Is America Building Weapons for the Wrong War? 29:00 Why War Experts Must Risk Being Wrong 40:25 Has Pape Been Wrong About Iran? 45:33 How Time Shifts the Balance of Power 51:23 Why the 2026 Midterms May Prolong the Iran War 55:16 How a Leader’s Health Can Change a War 1:01:40 How Assassinations and Elections Can Upend the World 1:05:28 Is AI Making Iran’s Attacks More Deadly? 1:07:38 Could AI Make Assassinations Easier? 1:13:36 Could Hezbollah Shut Down Israel’s Ports? 1:18:25 When Weapons Act Without Human Control
Robinson Erhardt researches symbolic logic and the foundations of mathematics at Stanford University, where he is also a JD candidate in the Law School.
Podden och tillhörande omslagsbild på den här sidan tillhör
Robinson Erhardt. Innehållet i podden är skapat av Robinson Erhardt och inte av,
eller tillsammans med, Poddtoppen.
